Projected response of 94 tree species to changes in N and S deposition from 2005 to 2100 and the associated ecosystem services at risk
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This summarizes a project under EPA/ORD/CPHEA for FY18-19 that examined the effects from changes in atmospheric deposition of N and S and changes in temperature and precipitation on forest tree species and select ecosystem services. Tree species provide a range of important societal values, including timber for harvesting, carbon sequestration, and recreational enjoyment for hikers, backpackers, and hunters. A recent analysis indicates that tree species respond differentially to atmospheric deposition of N and S, with uncertain implications on the future forest composition and the ecosystem services that these forests provide. Here we provide a first-ever estimate for the coterminous US (CONUS) on species level changes in relative abundance of the current forest cohort from 2005 to 2100 across 16 future climate and deposition scenarios. We then estimate how forest biomass and biodiversity are also affected, which are key forest properties underpinning many ecosystem services such as timber production, carbon sequestration, and habitat for wildlife.