Ecological modeling - simulating ecosystem dynamics
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The advent of mathematical models in ecology long preceded the age of computers. Ecologists used simple mathematical constructs in an effort to understand the dynamics of processes such as growth, competition, predation, and parasitism. As computers became increasingly available and powerful, ecologists began to utilize models for more complex analyses and for the management of environmental problems. The International Biological Program (IBP) was the catalyst for development of a number of large scale ecological models, designed to describe and predict ecosystem dynamics. Within the Federal Government, models have been increasingly employed to assist with managing natural resources, with advances in providing projections of risk to the environment and human health from stressors such as radiation, pesticides, and toxic substances. There has been a transition in ecology from a data poor science to a data rich science, a trend that has enhanced the quality of ecological models and expanded the utility of modeling studies. We can expect increasing degrees of modularity and connectivity resulting in more complex models to take advantage of advances in computational power. There will need to be more emphasis on characterizing results through such techniques as visualization and characterization of model uncertainty. We can also expect an expansion in the availability of sophisticated modeling tools such as EcoSim, R, Stella, and NetLogo. Lastly, we provide a short list of useful references and websites. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views or the policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any mention of trade names, manufacturers or products does not imply an endorsement by the United States Government or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA and its employees do not endorse any commercial products, services, or enterprises.