Using Conceptual Model Diagrams as Literature Screening and Evaluation Tools
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A key part of the problem formulation phase of environmental assessment is the development of conceptual model diagrams. These diagrams, which explicitly illustrate hypothesized pathways between sources, stressors, and responses relevant to the focal issue, are used in scoping and structuring the assessment. These diagrams also can provide a useful framework for initial evaluation of the literature-based evidence relevant to each pathway, to identify the available body of evidence. As part of a project examining potential drivers of increasing phosphorus concentrations in lakes, we developed a series of conceptual model diagrams. We then used these diagrams to structure a rapid literature screening process that quickly evaluates the available literature in a standardized, transparent manner. Standardized literature database searches were conducted for each pathway in a diagram; for each pathway, a set number of returns was screened at the title/abstract level to identify papers that explicitly evaluated or quantified relationships between the variables in that pathway. Ultimately, this process generated a “heat map” across the pathways, highlighting knowledge gaps and hotspots across the focal issue and helping to more effectively focus the assessment (and potentially future research).