Climate-Induced Invasions: Modeling Complex Responses and Non-native Fish Expansion in a Warming Stream Network
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Whether through intentional or accidental dispersal, invasive species have had widespread effects on native community dynamics in freshwater ecosystems. Impending shifts in climate patterns may exacerbate the impact of these species on fish communities. For example, warming climate and thus warmer stream temperatures could increase the suitability of habitat in coldwater systems for warmwater species. This habitat suitability transformation will promote distribution expansions of invasive warmwater fishes, leading to shifts in community dynamics that could threaten native fish species. We developed a flexible fish community modeling framework, Simulating Metacommunities of Riverine Fishes (SMRF), to showcase how assemblage modeling can be used to evaluate changes in fish communities in response to warming stream temperatures. Our model integrates aspects of movement, habitat suitability, and species interactions to predict shifts in abundance, distribution, and community assemblage. We explore the details of these community and population dynamics in a small tributary of the Willamette River in western Oregon and discuss how species interactions play a role in determining which species are most successful.