Plausible Future Changes in Eastern North Carolina Extreme Rainfall Projected in Dynamically Downscaled CESM and CM3 Models (2025-2100) Using WRF

The observed increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of eastern U.S. rainfall extremes is most likely to increase through 21st century. Eastern North Carolina is particularly vulnerable to frequent and devasting storms, and their associated flooding, yet the communities and infrastructure are not well prepared for intensifying rainfall events. To address arising challenges, governing bodies want to consider future climate models. This study used the WRF model to dynamically downscale simulations for a highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), from the CESM-CCSM4 and the GFDL-CM3 models. The downscaled data was further used in the design-rainfall approach (Jalowska et al., npj Climate & Atmos Sci, 2021) to better inform stakeholders of possible changes in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in Eastern North Carolina watersheds by the end of 21st century.

Impact/Purpose

Use of Storylines from Regional Simulations Workshop is organized by The North American CORDEX Program (CORDEX=Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment). The program sponsored by the World Climate Research Program provides global coordination of regional climate DYNAMICAL downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and impact assessment. I will present work based on the dynamicaly downscaled EPA models, to promote national and international use of USEPA data. 

Citation

Jalowska, A., T. Spero, AND J. Bowden. Plausible Future Changes in Eastern North Carolina Extreme Rainfall Projected in Dynamically Downscaled CESM and CM3 Models (2025-2100) Using WRF. Use of Storylines from Regional Simulations Workshop, online, online, CANADA, April 25 - 27, 2022.