Case Study: Using spatial data to predict PFAS in fish tissue for sampling prioritization in the Columbia River Basin
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Presentation for Chesapeake Bay Program Toxics Workgroup:
Decision makers in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) are currently challenged with identifying and characterizing the extent of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination and human exposure to PFAS. This work aims to develop and pilot a methodology to help decision makers target and prioritize sampling investigations and identify contaminated natural resources. Here we use random forest models to predict ΣPFAS in fish tissue; understanding PFAS levels in fish is particularly important in the CRB because fish can be a major component of tribal and indigenous peoples’ diets. Geospatial data, including land cover and distances to known or potential PFAS sources and industries, were leveraged as predictors for modeling. Models were developed and evaluated for Washington state and Oregon using limited available empirical data. Mapped predictions show several areas where detectable concentrations of PFAS in fish tissue are predicted to occur, but prior sampling has not yet confirmed. Variable importance is analyzed to identify potentially important sources of PFAS in fish in this region. The cost-effective methodologies demonstrated here can help address sparsity of existing PFAS occurrence data in environmental media in this and other regions while also giving insights into potentially important drivers and sources of PFAS in fish.