Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. This study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

Impact/Purpose

Policies supporting biofuels – like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) - play an increasing role in the United States and elsewhere to try to reduce the carbon footprint from transportation and reduce reliance on foreign energy sources. As part of those policies, the EPA is charged with evaluating the effects of the RFS Program on biofuel production and the environment in order to better understand the individual effects of different policies. Prior research has found that for the most dominant biofuel in the U.S., corn ethanol, the RFS Program may have played a smaller role than expected; but, similar investigation had not been performed on other biofuels such as soybean biodiesel. Here we use the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) to assess the effects on historical biodiesel production the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 we find that about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. This has implications for policymakers charged with the sustainable development of biofuels in the U.S., suggesting that the RFS Program is a significant factor supporting their production and use.

Citation

Miller, Jesse, C. Clark, S. Peterson, AND E. Newes. Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model. Elsevier BV, AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS, 192:114250, (2024). [DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114250]

DOI: Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model