Estimation of Flint Hills Tallgrass Prairie Productivity and Fuel Loads: A Model-Based Synthesis and Extrapolation of Experimental Data
We used EPA’s ecohydrology model, Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA), to 1) conduct a performance-tested synthesis of long-term Konza Prairie Biological Station (KPBS) experimental data capable of describing the interactive effects of climate, fire, grazing, topography, soil moisture, nitrogen (N), and carbon (C) dynamics on tallgrass prairie productivity and fuel loads; 2) spatially and temporally extrapolate VELMA’s KPBS data synthesis for estimating productivity and fuel loads across the Flint Hills tallgrass prairie ecoregion in eastern Kansas, USA, with the goal of supporting smoke dispersion and trajectory modeling using the BlueSky model framework to forecast downwind air quality impacts on rural and urban communities; and (3) support the interests of Flint Hills stakeholders and regulatory agencies for exploring ecological and air quality tradeoffs in response to actual and hypothetical tallgrass prairie management scenarios. Our regional spatial and temporal extrapolation of VELMA’s KPBS data synthesis posits that the effects of integrated ecohydrological processes operate similarly across spatial scales, from the 35 km2 KPBS to the >25,000 km2 Flint Hills ecoregion. VELMA also includes well-established nonlinear representations of temperature and moisture effects on ecohydrological processes to model effects of regional scale climatic gradients and long-term climate trends. Based on performance tests of the VELMA-BlueSky toolset, our multi-institution team is confident that it can assist stakeholders and decision makers in realistically exploring tallgrass prairie management practices for optimizing air quality, tallgrass prairie sustainability, and associated economic benefits for the Flint Hills ecoregion and downwind communities. These goals are consistent with the multi-stakeholder developed State of Kansas Smoke Management Plan (2010).