Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland−Urban Interface

The increased risk of wild¿res and associated smoke exposurein the United States is a growing public health problem, particularly along theWildland−Urban Interface (WUI). Using the measure of ¿re danger, theEnergy Release Component, we de¿ne ¿re danger as the onset and durationof ¿re season, in the continental US, between 1979 and 2016. We thencombine the measure of ¿re danger with census data to quantify changes inpopulation ¿re exposure across the WUI. We determined that the largestincreases in ¿re danger were observed in the Southwest, Intermountain, andPaci¿c Southwest regions. The increased ¿re danger, speci¿cally during peak¿re season, accounted for 6.1 more ¿res each year and 78,000 more acresburned each year, underscoring the link between ¿re danger and the risks of large ¿re occurrence and burn acreage. Finally, weobserved signi¿cant population growth (121.2% between 1990 and 2010) within high-danger WUI areas, further implying signi¿cantincreases in potential ¿re exposure.

Impact/Purpose

In this paper, we examined the regional trends in fire hazard and population risk. Using the Energy Release Component (ERC), an index of fire weather conditions, we measured trends in fire hazard in terms of the onset and length of fire season. We confirmed the relation between fire hazard and fire season severity using the observed frequency and burn acreage of large fires. We then summarized changes in hazard and population risk within WUI areas of the continental US and identified those areas with the highest increases in fire risks.

Citation

Peterson, G., S. Prince, AND A. Rappold. Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland−Urban Interface. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, 55(23):16257 - 16265, (2021). [DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c03835]

DOI: Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland−Urban Interface