Uncertainty in Estimating Systems Accuracy and its Impact on Decision-making in Green Design
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As Green Chemistry expands, data on new chemicals will be generated. Even if a chemical is designed to be benign, data will be needed to support that claim. Given the trend away from animal testing, in-vitro and in-silico testing – often referred to as New Approach Methods, or NAMs - will supplant traditional data. Even with traditional testing methods we often debate the uncertainty of the data when it is applied to decisions about chemicals. Different types of uncertainty include within and between species variability, susceptibility, and aspects of quality and quantity of evidence. Uncertainty is described and quantified through several methods including statistical descriptions and uncertainty factors. Will these traditional approaches be appropriate for addressing uncertainties associated with data generated from alternatives to animal testing? How do we tackle uncertainty when considering newer methodologies such as in vitro and in silico data? Regardless of data sources in future work, defining and quantifying uncertainty remains important. Research has been done into applications of uncertainty theory such as the Toxicological Threshold of Concern where one calculates at what exposure any chemical has a very small probability of causing an effect. Other approaches include data surveys to determine the average uncertainty of point estimates as well as the application of mathematical models to select the “best” value based on large quantities of data. Exploring approaches to apply techniques to NAMs and expand the mathematical underpinnings is an exciting opportunity. Even after characterizing the uncertainties, communicating them is a challenge. The description and communication of uncertainty amongst types of environmental benchmarks is varied depending upon purpose. Describing and communicating uncertainty takes skill. We’ll provide an overview of existing and newer methodologies that allow one to address uncertainties and consider ways to communicate those methods and results. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.