Projecting Changes to Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystem Goods and Services – Models and Tools

Ecosystem alterations can be the product of a multitude of factors, occur at different spatiotemporal scales, and affect EGS of all types. Integrating these dynamic variables poses a challenge when modeling EGS endpoints. However, the quantity of models and tools that explicitly predict changes to EGS based on alterations to input variables make up a minor proportion of all models applied in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Some of this disparity may be due to the relatively recent development of the EGS concept, as well as the inherent complexity and variability of these models. In this chapter, we present a suite of models that exemplify the approach of predicting EGS changes at different scales, outline the domain of models that may offer the most utility to coastal decision-makers, present examples epitomizing this utility, and highlight common difficulties across coastal and estuarine EGS models. We conclude with suggestions for integrating EGS models into the coastal management decision-making process during times of increasing environmental change.

Impact/Purpose

Scientists from WED’s Pacific Coastal Ecology Branch in Newport, OR and GED in Gulf Breeze, FL have developed a chapter for the book, “The Theory and Practice of Ecosystem Based Management,” which addresses challenges to implementing ecosystem-based management and integrating the concept of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) into environmental conservation/management. This chapter highlights the importance of forecasting changes to EGS endpoints, presents a suite of models that exemplify this approach at different scales, outlines the domain of models that may offer the most utility to coastal decision-makers, and highlights common difficulties across coastal and estuarine EGS models. The quantity of models and tools that explicitly predict changes to EGS based on alterations to input variables represents only a minor proportion of all models used in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In an ever-changing environment, this perspective greatly benefits scientists, resource managers, and stakeholders looking to utilize or develop models suited to predict the provision of EGS to coastal communities. This research was conducted under RAP task SHC 2.61.3.

Citation

Lewis, N., D. Marois, C. Littles, AND R. Fulford. Projecting Changes to Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystem Goods and Services – Models and Tools. Timothy G. O’Higgins, Manuel Lago, Theodore H. DeWitt The Theory and Practice of Ecosystem Based Management. Springer, Heidelberg, GERMANY235-253, (2020). [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-45843-0_12]

DOI: Projecting Changes to Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystem Goods and Services – Models and Tools