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Quantitative Characterization of Uncertainty in the Concentration Response Relationship between Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality at Low Concentrations

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Extensive epidemiologic evidence supports a linear, no-threshold concentration-response (C-R) relationship between long-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and mortality in the United States. While examinations of the C-R relationship are designed to assess the shape of the C-R curve, they do not provide the information needed to quantitatively characterize uncertainty at specific PM2.5 concentrations, which is often needed in the context of risk assessments and benefits analyses. We developed a novel approach, using information that is typically available in published epidemiologic studies, to quantitatively characterize uncertainty at different concentrations along the PM2.5 concentration distribution. Our approach utilizes the annual mean PM2.5 concentration and corresponding standard deviation from a published epidemiologic study deemed useful for a benefits assessment to estimate the standard deviation of hypothetical PM2.5 concentration distributions defined at 0.1 µg/m3 increments. The hypothetical distributions are then used to derive adjusted uncertainty estimates in the reported effect estimate at low concentrations. We demonstrate the application of this method in six individual epidemiologic studies that examined the relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality and were conducted in different geographic locations worldwide and at different PM2.5 concentrations. This new method allows for a more comprehensive quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in the shape of the C-R relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality at concentrations below the annual mean concentrations observed in current studies.

Impact/Purpose

This paper attempts to fill a gap that currently exists in the PM literature by providing a method for quantifying uncertainty in the concentration-response (C-R) relationship for long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality at specific PM2.5 concentrations. We developed a novel approach, using information that is typically available in published epidemiologic studies, to quantitatively characterize uncertainty at different concentrations along the PM2.5 concentration distribution. Specifically, this new method allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty at low concentrations. This method could prove to be useful in the process of conducting risk assessments and benefits analyses.

Citation

Coffman, E., R. Burnett, AND J. Sacks. Quantitative Characterization of Uncertainty in the Concentration Response Relationship between Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality at Low Concentrations. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, 54(16):10191-10200, (2020). [DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02770]

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DOI: Quantitative Characterization of Uncertainty in the Concentration Response Relationship between Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality at Low Concentrations
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Last updated on November 25, 2020
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