Satellites predict lakes at risk from cyanobacteria and microcystin toxins
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Algal blooms caused by toxin-producing cyanobacteria are a threat to global water resources and human health. Water resource managers need tools that identify lakes at risk of toxic cyanobacteria blooms. We address this need by using satellite imagery and US-wide field surveys to model the probability of large lakes (>1.25 km2) exceeding lower and higher demonstration thresholds of microcystin toxin, cyanobacteria, and chlorophyll a. For every increase of 0.01 satellite cyanobacteria magnitude the odds of exceeding the threshold increase by 23–54%. Among the 2,192 satellite monitored lakes, those identified with high probability of exceeding the lower and higher thresholds included ≤335 and ≤70 lakes, respectively. Our approach represents a critical advancement in using satellite imagery to aid field bloom monitoring and identify management priorities.