Damage functions for ocean acidification and warming impacts on shellfisheries
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In addition to being the primary driver of global climate change, carbon dioxide emissions are causing changes in seawater chemistry known as ocean acidification. As the atmospheric concentration increases, the ocean absorbs more carbon dioxide, and through a series of chemical reactions reduces the amount of carbonate ions available for calcifying organisms to build and maintain their shells, skeletons, and other carbonate structures. Reef-forming corals, commercially valuable shellfish, and primary producers that form the base of the marine food web are among the affected organisms. To expand the set of economic damages captured by social cost of carbon estimates, we estimate damage functions for the most studied and directly impacted marine ecosystem services. Ocean warming and acidification have synergistic effects that reduce the growth and survival rates of commercially harvested shellfish. We develop a new linked ecological-economic model that includes six types of shellfish: clams, crabs, lobsters, mussels, oysters, and scallops. The bioeconomic model estimates how future oceanic conditions with respect to temperature and carbonate chemistry alter growth rates and populations of commercially harvested shellfish. Using zonal ocean carbon chemistry predictions, we predict global commercial harvest and market clearing prices for shellfish from which we estimate changes in producer and consumer welfare.