Assessing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) to climate change:property protection ES of tidal wetlands
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Stressors such as climate change, pollution, and development affect ecosystem condition and consequently they affect the goods and services that people use, appreciate, or enjoy that are produced by those ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem services, ES). Anticipating how ES are affected by stressors can allow stakeholders and managers to monitor key ecological attributes (KEAs) for changes of condition or to proactively protect or restore those features. We developed a conceptual framework and assessment methodology for identifying the KEAs necessary to produce ecosystem services, assessing the vulnerability of KEAs to stressors, and assessing which ecological processes can increase the resilience of KEAs to stressors. This method relies on mining existing information from peer-reviewed scientific articles. We demonstrate this method with a case study of the effects of cyclonic storms and sea level rise (i.e., the stressors) on the property protection ES provided by tidal wetlands (i.e., the ecosystem). Using the methodology, we identified 12 KEAs for the property protection ES, determined that KEA decline due to storms was most frequently associated with inundation (i.e., surge flooding), that decrease in wetland size/area was the most frequently reported impacted KEA primarily due to erosion, and that some KEAs (i.e., vegetation aboveground biomass and vegetation cover/density) can recover within 1 year of a storm, but others (i.e., wetland size/area and wetland platform elevation) can take more than 10 years to recover. A natural supply of sediment, accretion processes, plant growth and reproduction, and upland space for marsh migration were most frequently cited as processes that increase the resilience of KEAs. However, there was little or no data on storm impacts, recovery rates, or resilience-enhancing processes for several KEAs, revealing knowledge gaps that could affect sustaining the property protection ES of tidal wetlands in the face of climate change. We discuss the use of the results of this assessment within existing coastal planning contexts, such as EPA’s Climate Ready Estuaries program. Our results also identify priority end points for condition-assessment monitoring and needs for research to fill critical knowledge gaps. The framework and assessment methodology are applicable to any ecosystem type, ES, and type of stressor, limited by the availability of published scientific information (e.g., journal articles, agency reports).