Changes in Future Extreme Precipitation in USFS Experimental Forests from Dynamically Downscaled Simulations
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The increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and associate flooding has been well documented within the Southeastern U.S. using the historical climate records. Studies also describe dramatic ecosystem responses to extreme events with a plausible regime shifts in the intensity and quantity of runoff within some watersheds. Furthermore, climate models indicate that precipitation intensification will continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. To address arising challenges related to changing precipitation characteristics, governing and managing bodies need information to prepare for future weather, which can be provided by the modelling community. Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (PIDF) curves are a common tool used to account for extreme precipitation events in urban and environmental planning. The PIDF curves estimate a frequency of occurrence of extreme rain events (rainfall amount within a given period of time) based on frequency analyses of the available data.
Here we present preliminary analyses of the trends in extreme precipitation probabilities for USFS experimental Forest sites. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to dynamically downscale four climate global climate models for highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5) to 22-km (NA CORDEX program) and 36-km (USEPA).