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Forest response curves to global change and potential applications: 2024 Fall NADP Presentation

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  • Overview
Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing U.S. forests and that will continue in the future even as we mitigate climate change.  Using spatial gradients in mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), we used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds for changes in the growth and survival of roughly 150 tree species across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS).  We found that growth of nearly one third of tree species assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase in MAT (42-49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively to projected regional trends in MAP (<20 species each in the east and west).  Hypothetical increases in temperature (+1oC, +2oC) increased average growth in the east and Pacific Northwest and decreased it in parts of the Rockies and Southeast, while survival generally decreased.  Average growth and survival generally decreased with wetter conditions (-25%) in the east and with drier conditions (-25%) in the west.  Beyond these averages, there were species that benefitted and those that were harmed nearly everywhere across the CONUS.  We identified only eight species out of ~150 assessed that were resilient (no negative effect on growth and survival) to increases in temperature, and 24 species in the east and seven in the west displaying resilience to regional trends in precipitation (increases in the east and decreases in the west).  We also identified "tipping points" where several species shifted from positive to negative relationships.  Average confidence in the relationships was generally high, though there were species and metrics with low confidence especially for survival.  These findings have significant implications for the future national forest carbon sink and for conservation efforts in the face of climate change.

Impact/Purpose

The purpose of this effort is to assess the impacts of climate change (in terms of mean annual temperature [MAT] and mean annual precipitation [MAP]) on forests across the U.S.  Climate and climate change are increasingly threatening our environment and natural resources, and we need better information to adapt and manage for current and future changes in climate.  This study used the USDA Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) dataset to assess the effects of MAT and MAP on the growth and survival of ~150 tree species across the contiguous U.S.  We found that there were many species that benefitted and that were harmed with changes in climate, with implications for our nation's forests.  This information will help states and local managers better understand how forests and the ecosystem services that they provide (e.g., carbon sequestration, water purification) may be impacted in the future.

Citation

Clark, C., J. Coughlin, J. Phelan, G. Martin, K. Austin, L. Pardo, E. Felker-Quinn, M. Bell, AND R. Thomas. Forest response curves to global change and potential applications: 2024 Fall NADP Presentation. National Atmospheric Deposition (NADP) Fall Meeting, Duluth, MN, November 04 - 08, 2024.
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Last updated on November 12, 2024
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