Multiplying the Impact of Field Data through Models Understand the Extent, Drivers, and Risk for Lake Harmful Cyanobacteria Blooms

Cyanobacteria blooms that produce toxins are a growing concern for water quality and water managers across the United States. Our team uses field data from national surveys of lakes to build models that help us understand the extent, drivers, and risk of toxic blooms for thousands to hundreds of thousands of lakes across the conterminous US. This presentation covers use of statistical survey design to infer the extend of blooms across the country, combining field and satellite data estimate risk of toxic blooms in thousands of lakes, and leveraging multiple national datasets to understand drivers and estimate the risk of blooms in 125,000 lakes across the US.  The toxic bloom risk estimates can be used to prioritize which lakes receive additional monitoring and target near-lake communities for risk communication.

Impact/Purpose

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms can produce toxins which impair freshwater ecosystems used for drinking water, recreation, and habitat for aquatic biota. With increased awareness and reporting of cyanobacteria blooms, water managers need information about how to prioritize monitoring locations in surface waters that may be affected. This presentation highlights analyses that combine data from the National Lakes Assessments field assessments with the satellite-based Cyanobacteria Assessment Network, the National Nutrient Inventory, and multiple watershed and geographics setting characteristics from LakeCat to understand the extent and risk of cyanobacteria blooms across the US. This presentation is part of the Oregon State University Water Seminar Series for which the audience is students, faculty, and members of the public.

Citation

Handler, A., J. Compton, M. Reynolds, M. Dumelle, R. Hill, S. Leibowitz, B. Schaeffer, M. Weber, L. Jansen, M. Brehob, M. Pennino, R. Sabo, A. Rea, Annie Neale, S. Paulsen, T. Barnum, AND Jim Carleton. Multiplying the Impact of Field Data through Models Understand the Extent, Drivers, and Risk for Lake Harmful Cyanobacteria Blooms. Oregon State University Water Seminar Series, Corvallis, OR, April 09, 2025.