Summary of Future Climate, Population and Land Use Change in Nolensville, Tennessee

This report uses best-available information to understand potential environmental changes in the region through mid-century, including several tools and datasets developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Greater Nashville Regional Council’s (GNRC) recently adopted Regional Transportation Plan informs the projected changes in population, demographics, and land use. For future temperature and precipitation projections, the report draws on the EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool,[1] which provides climate projections downscaled to match local planning decisions. Finally, the report includes simulations of future hydrologic and water quality in the Mill Creek watershed under climate change using EPA’s Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) tool.[2] [1] https://lasso.epa.gov/ [2] https://hawqs.tamu.edu/#/

Impact/Purpose

The town of Nolensville is projected to experience environmental changes over the coming decades related to climate change as well as land use shifts and an expanding population. This report characterizes potential changes in the region to support local planning and increase resilience to new challenges that may arise in a warmer climate and evolving community. Planning that considers projected changes can better support decision-making and design efforts amidst future uncertainty and the potential for climate risks.

Citation

Morefield, P. Summary of Future Climate, Population and Land Use Change in Nolensville, Tennessee. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 2024.

• SUMMARY OF FUTURE CLIMATE, POPULATION AND LAND USE CHANGE IN NOLENSVILLE, TENNESSEE.DOCX