Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S.

We present a new geospatial dataset that describes both the extent and depth of inundation in the United States and outlying territories under global scenarios of sea-level rise. This new dataset incorporates projections from the 2022 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) technical report: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States and integrates elements from the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea-Level Rise Calculator. It provides users with intuitive access to relevant GIS data layers, enabling detailed analysis and visualization of potential scenario-based changes in mean sea level due to sea-level rise. This paper outlines the methodology, processing steps, and data validation involved in the dataset development, emphasizing the steps taken to further tailor information from the NOAA technical report to enhance the utility for spatial adaptation planning. These new geospatial datasets can provide critical insight for policymakers, researchers, planners, and others concerned with adapting to sea-level rise in coastal areas.

Impact/Purpose

This manuscript describes the creation of a sea-level projections designed specifically for adaptation planning. Existing, similar sea-level rise projections and datasets were created for general scientific purposes, but lack characteristics that would make that information accessible and/or useful for lay audiences, e.g., high-spatial resolution, organized by scenario + year combinations.

Citation

Konfirst, Matthew A., Chris Feinman, AND P. Morefield. Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S. Springer Nature, LONDON, UK, 13(1):1053, (2026). [DOI: 10.1038/s41597-026-06669-7]

DOI: Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S.